The crypto markets are facing another significant event with $1.6 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options set to expire today. With market conditions already softening this week, traders are wondering if this expiration will trigger further volatility or if the trend will hold steady.
On Friday, October 11, roughly 18,800 Bitcoin options contracts, worth around $1.1 billion, are due to expire. In addition, 212,000 Ethereum options, valued at $510 million, are also set to expire. While these figures are large, the key question is whether they will significantly impact market prices.
Bitcoin Options Expiry: Key Details
This week’s Bitcoin options market has a fairly balanced outlook, as shown by a put/call ratio of 0.91. This ratio suggests that there is a relatively even distribution of long (call) contracts and short (put) contracts, which indicates a neutral market sentiment. Typically, a ratio closer to 1 suggests that traders are neither overwhelmingly bullish nor bearish.
The “max pain” point for Bitcoin — the price where the most options expire worthless, resulting in the highest losses for holders — is set at $62,000. With Bitcoin trading around $60,500, it’s roughly $1,500 below this level. While the proximity to this price could keep volatility in check, the market has already seen some declines this week due to broader concerns.
Another important metric is open interest (OI), which reflects the value of active contracts that have yet to expire. There is $790 million in open interest at the $70,000 strike price, showing that many traders are still betting on a rise in Bitcoin’s price. Further out, the $100,000 strike price holds $964 million in contracts, suggesting that a segment of the market is still optimistic about a future rally, though that seems less likely given the current market climate.
Ethereum Options: A More Bullish Picture
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s options market appears more optimistic, with a put/call ratio of 0.4, indicating a higher number of long (call) contracts relative to shorts (puts). The max pain point for Ethereum is $2,450, close to its current price of $2,400, which could limit any sharp price drops in the short term unless market sentiment shifts dramatically.
Expiry Impact May Be Limited
Despite the large number of options expiring today, analysts suggest that the event may not have a huge impact on the spot market. Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live noted that volatility has been decreasing, and open interest at critical levels has also fallen. The $60,000 mark for Bitcoin remains a crucial area of focus, but overall market activity is subdued.
“The first two weeks of Q4 have been weak,” Greeks Live noted, adding that the options market is in a “depressed” state. However, they also pointed out that these slower periods can create opportunities for traders to build longer-term positions at lower prices.
Broader Market Trends
As the options expiry looms, the broader crypto market has continued to decline. Overall market capitalization has dropped by 1.4% in the past 24 hours, settling at $2.21 trillion. However, the markets have been largely stagnant over the past six months.
Bitcoin has lost more than 8% since late September, and hopes for a bullish “Uptober” have yet to materialize. After dipping to $58,900 on Thursday, Bitcoin saw a slight recovery and is now trading at around $60,500.
Ethereum has also seen a downturn, dropping to $2,335 before bouncing back slightly to $2,400. On top of this, rumors have circulated that the Chinese government may be selling off Ethereum seized from the PlusToken Ponzi scheme, adding more uncertainty to the market.
Conclusion: What’s Next for Crypto Markets?
With $1.6 billion in crypto options expiring today, there’s potential for some market movement, but it may not be as dramatic as some expect. Given the balanced nature of the options market and the declining volatility, it’s unlikely that we’ll see significant price swings right away. However, the outcome of today’s expirations could offer important clues about the market’s future direction, particularly if Bitcoin can maintain key levels like $60,000 or if Ethereum avoids further losses.
In the near term, traders should remain cautious as the market continues to respond to broader economic conditions and regulatory uncertainties. That said, as Greeks Live suggests, quieter periods like this can offer opportunities for those looking to build long-term positions ahead of the next major move. Whether that move will be upward or downward remains to be seen, but the market seems to be at a crossroads where both risks and opportunities are in play.
