Speculation over the upcoming United States presidential election has sent trading volumes on crypto prediction platform Polymarket to unprecedented heights, with the first half of July alone surpassing any previous month’s activity.
According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket recorded $116.4 million in volume this month, eclipsing the previous record of $111.5 million set in June. This surge is primarily driven by bets on the presidential election outcome.
Traders have placed a staggering $263.5 million in total wagers on who will win the US presidency on November 4. At the moment, Trump is the favorite among prediction traders with a 69% chance of victory, followed by President Joe Biden at 19%. Vice President Kamala Harris is at 6%, while former First Lady Michelle Obama holds 2%.
So far in 2024, Polymarket has handled $471.9 million in bets across various categories, including politics, finance, sports, and cryptocurrency.
Polymarket Welcomes Election Analyst Nate Silver
In a strategic move, Polymarket has brought on renowned election analyst Nate Silver as an advisor, as reported by Axios on July 16. Silver pointed out that prediction markets offer more than just financial speculation; they provide valuable insights into public sentiment during uncertain times. “Understanding probabilities is crucial for making informed decisions,” Silver noted.
Interestingly, Silver expressed doubts about Trump’s decision to choose Ohio Senator JD Vance, a known crypto supporter, as his running mate, suggesting it could potentially hurt Trump’s campaign.
Additionally, Polymarket secured $70 million in a Series B funding round on May 14, led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and featuring contributions from prominent figures like Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Despite being inaccessible to US residents, Polymarket remains a popular platform for betting on American political events.
